Welcome to my Stock Market Indices Report. This report is in no way indicative of what individual stocks will do but rather a general ‘crystal ball’ of overall market movements. Individual stocks often do not move in the same direction or the same magnitude as an index. To know what stocks to buy or what to sell you must do your own study and research. Please read the disclaimer below.
I wrote last week, “If these levels are exceeded then this could be the start of a much more significant decline. The middle of this week is a high energy period for a reversal in the markets.”
The All Ordinaries index fell 191 points last Thursday and has continued its decline, breaking through the October 22, 2007 low. The next area to watch is if the index can break through the support level of the previous high of 6469. If the market falls through 6469 then retraces back up and fails to close above that level before a continued decline we can be pretty certain that the 18-year cycle high is complete.
If on the other hand the All Ords index fails to break through the 6469 level and continues to rise above 6733 expect new all time highs to be formed. I wrote back in 2003 that the All Ordinaries Index could go beyond 7500 points before the completion of this 18-year cycle.
The XAO is in week 13 of its 22-week Primary Cycle. The peak happened in week 11. If the market does not rise above the high of 6873 within the next 3 weeks it will make a ‘centre translation’ cycle. This indicates a ‘running out’ of bullish emotion and hence a significant bear market to follow. My bias is currently with the later since we are so close to the possible termination of the 18-year cycle (the trough on or before October 2008).
Next reversal date is Thursday, November 15. The major reversal period in December is 24 through 28 (a Primary Cycle or greater peak or trough). Areas of support for the All Ordinaries are 6469 and 6345. Points where the All Ordinaries could experience resistance advancing higher are 6798, 6873, 6894 and 6964.
Next report out on Monday, November 19.
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Terminology
CAC - The CAC 40 index is the main benchmark for Euronext Paris (France).
DAX - DAX 30 is a Blue Chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.
DOW - The Dow Jones Industrial Average (The Dow) is the main stock market index for the New York Stock Exchange (USA).
FTSE - The FTSE 100 Index (or just the FTSE, pronounced footsie) is a share index of the 100 most highly capitalised companies listed on the London Stock Exchange. FTSE is an abbreviation of 'Financial Times Stock Exchange'.
Nikkei - Nikkei 225 is a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (Japan).
S&P - The S&P 500 is an index containing the stocks of 500 Large-Cap corporations, most of which are American, from both the NYSE and NASDAQ Stock Exchanges (USA).
XAO - The All Ordinaries (colloquially, the "All Ords"; also known as the All Ordinaries Index, AOI) is the main index of shares for the Australian Stock Exchange.
Disclaimer
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