It has been a few weeks since I posted my last report. The All Ordinaries index rose up and stopped on a turning date, February 7 at 4188.8 points. It has now been declining for three weeks and appears to be in the decline to its 20.5-month cycle low due before March 10.
For the market to continue its decline it shouldn’t take out the swing high of 4159.5. For a strong short trade we do not want to see it rise for any more than 2½ days. Once the daily swing chart turns down again the bears will pull the market down quite rapidly.
There is a turning date on Friday, March 4.
Until next week, many successful trades!
® Trading Edge is a registered trademark used under licence by Wealth By Creation Pty Ltd.
Disclaimer
The training and eduction services provided by Wealth By Creation Pty Ltd (acn 112 230 958) and David Schirmer involve the supply of factual information about securities and securities markets only. It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques or indicators presented will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The training and education services do not involve any recommendations in relation to your personal financial circumstances or investment needs and does not provide any investment advice. Examples presented are for educational purposes only. Any stock, option, warrant, CFD, currency or future contract mentioned are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold but merely a study of past performance.
Before making any investment decisions you should obtain advice from a licensed securities advisor and consider with or without the assistance of a securities adviser, whether the advice is appropriate in light of the particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances of the prospective investor. Trading Edge®, Wealth By Creation Pty Ltd and its representatives and officers will not accept liability for any loss, damage or expense incurred or suffered by you if you rely on any information provided in making investment decisions. By attending any Wealth By Creation event or reading or viewing any Wealth By Creation material you are implicitly agreeing to the conditions set out above.
Monday, February 28, 2005
Monday, January 24, 2005
Australian All Ordinaries Index (XAO) for week beginning Monday, January 24, 2005
Let’s have a quick review of what I said in my last report. On January 10, 2005 I wrote:
"... That small correction is due right now. ... A final high at 4,106 this week would be perfect, however it may not reach there." The XAO continued to rise to an all time high of 4094.8, not quite making the major resistance of 4106 as suggested.
“... Tuesday, January 11 is a potential turning date for the All Ords.” The market made a high on January 11 and turned down the next day.
“However Friday, January 14 has ‘cycle top’ written all over it. If the market is rising into January 14, expect it to turn and commence its decline, if the market is falling into that date expect another sharp rally up before the peak.” The All Ords was declining Friday, January 14 then rose up for a sharp rally to Tuesday, January 18 to the all time high of 4094.8 then commenced its decline.
“In any case, be prepared for confirmation of a peak in the market over the next fortnight, which should then lead the index into a sharp fall of at least 360 points.” As mentioned before, it did make its high at 4094.8 and has since fallen 64 points. I expect that we will see a counter trend confirmation this week followed by the continued decline into the 20.5-month cycle low over the next few weeks.
Possible turning day this week are Tuesday, January 25 and Friday, January 28. Most likely the market will turn up for Tuesday and be heading back down by Friday. It tested the weekly swing low of 4030.6 last week with a low of 4031.3. My bias is that if it breaks that support level, the rate of decline will speed up somewhat. Minor support levels are at 3995, 3972, 3743 and 3626. The market should find stronger support at 3889, 3688 and major support around 3386, if it gets that far down.
CML appears to have fulfilled the rules to sell after its long rise up. For those trading CFD’s it certainly is worthwhile doing some analysis to see if CML is a possible short sell.
Until next week, many successful trades!
® Trading Edge is a registered trademark used under licence by Wealth By Creation Pty Ltd.
Disclaimer
The training and eduction services provided by Wealth By Creation Pty Ltd (acn 112 230 958) and David Schirmer involve the supply of factual information about securities and securities markets only. It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques or indicators presented will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The training and education services do not involve any recommendations in relation to your personal financial circumstances or investment needs and does not provide any investment advice. Examples presented are for educational purposes only. Any stock, option, warrant, CFD, currency or future contract mentioned are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold but merely a study of past performance.
Before making any investment decisions you should obtain advice from a licensed securities advisor and consider with or without the assistance of a securities adviser, whether the advice is appropriate in light of the particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances of the prospective investor. Trading Edge®, Wealth By Creation Pty Ltd and its representatives and officers will not accept liability for any loss, damage or expense incurred or suffered by you if you rely on any information provided in making investment decisions. By attending any Wealth By Creation event or reading or viewing any Wealth By Creation material you are implicitly agreeing to the conditions set out above.
"... That small correction is due right now. ... A final high at 4,106 this week would be perfect, however it may not reach there." The XAO continued to rise to an all time high of 4094.8, not quite making the major resistance of 4106 as suggested.
“... Tuesday, January 11 is a potential turning date for the All Ords.” The market made a high on January 11 and turned down the next day.
“However Friday, January 14 has ‘cycle top’ written all over it. If the market is rising into January 14, expect it to turn and commence its decline, if the market is falling into that date expect another sharp rally up before the peak.” The All Ords was declining Friday, January 14 then rose up for a sharp rally to Tuesday, January 18 to the all time high of 4094.8 then commenced its decline.
“In any case, be prepared for confirmation of a peak in the market over the next fortnight, which should then lead the index into a sharp fall of at least 360 points.” As mentioned before, it did make its high at 4094.8 and has since fallen 64 points. I expect that we will see a counter trend confirmation this week followed by the continued decline into the 20.5-month cycle low over the next few weeks.
Possible turning day this week are Tuesday, January 25 and Friday, January 28. Most likely the market will turn up for Tuesday and be heading back down by Friday. It tested the weekly swing low of 4030.6 last week with a low of 4031.3. My bias is that if it breaks that support level, the rate of decline will speed up somewhat. Minor support levels are at 3995, 3972, 3743 and 3626. The market should find stronger support at 3889, 3688 and major support around 3386, if it gets that far down.
CML appears to have fulfilled the rules to sell after its long rise up. For those trading CFD’s it certainly is worthwhile doing some analysis to see if CML is a possible short sell.
Until next week, many successful trades!
® Trading Edge is a registered trademark used under licence by Wealth By Creation Pty Ltd.
Disclaimer
The training and eduction services provided by Wealth By Creation Pty Ltd (acn 112 230 958) and David Schirmer involve the supply of factual information about securities and securities markets only. It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques or indicators presented will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The training and education services do not involve any recommendations in relation to your personal financial circumstances or investment needs and does not provide any investment advice. Examples presented are for educational purposes only. Any stock, option, warrant, CFD, currency or future contract mentioned are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold but merely a study of past performance.
Before making any investment decisions you should obtain advice from a licensed securities advisor and consider with or without the assistance of a securities adviser, whether the advice is appropriate in light of the particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances of the prospective investor. Trading Edge®, Wealth By Creation Pty Ltd and its representatives and officers will not accept liability for any loss, damage or expense incurred or suffered by you if you rely on any information provided in making investment decisions. By attending any Wealth By Creation event or reading or viewing any Wealth By Creation material you are implicitly agreeing to the conditions set out above.
Monday, January 10, 2005
Australian All Ordinaries Index (XAO) for week beginning January 10, 2005
I trust you had a safe and relaxing festive season … and you didn’t eat or drink too much!!
2005 will be a very different year from 2004, for both traders and investors.
WD Gann said that a year ending in 5 in the decade was typically very bullish. I believe that 2005 will be no different (check out the 103 year chart at http://www.asx.com.au/about/pdf/AllOrds.pdf). My bias is that the Australian market is now well into Wave 5 on the Elliott Wave (long term yearly), considering Wave 1 commenced in 1975 and the shorter term (monthly) started in 1987, this is a probably Wave 5 of a Wave 5.
The All Ordinaries index is in the orb period of the 18-year cycle low (Nov 2002-Oct 2008). History shows us that the 18-year cycle high has always been preceded by a euphoric rise that lasted at least 18 months and at least double in price from the low (18-year cycle troughs: 1915, 1953, 1975 - 1932 & 1987 were the lows of the longer term 54-year cycles). The decline into the 18-year cycle low has been at least 38% over a minimum of 18 months (a multi-year decline)! And that is all ahead of us now!!!
This means that the final high of this current rise will be at least 5,332 points (200% of the March 13, 2003 low) and will happen before May 2006 (at least 18 months before Oct 2008 - the latest that the18-year cycle could end). Then followed by the 18-year cycle low – a fall of at least 1,593 points … a bit of a decline. A 1,600 plus decline over at least 18 months would give ample opportunity to make a lot of money of the short side of the market in many stocks and indices.
My bias is that most or all of the rise into the 18-year cycle crest will happen in 2005, but not before a small correction. That small correction is due right now. In fact, I have been expecting it for the last couple of months. A final high at 4,106 this week would be perfect, however it may not reach there. This Monday January 10, 2005 is a ‘high energy’ day and will lend itself to a strong rise; Tuesday, January 11 is a potential turning date for the All Ords. However Friday, January 14 has ‘cycle top’ written all over it. If the market is rising into January 14, expect it to turn and commence its decline, if the market is falling into that date expect another sharp rally up before the peak.
In any case, be prepared for confirmation of a peak in the market over the next fortnight, which should then lead the index into a sharp fall of at least 360 points. Whatever you do, trade your knowledge in the market … don’t trade my comments or someone else’s opinion!
® Trading Edge is a registered trademark used under licence by Wealth By Creation Pty Ltd.
Disclaimer
The training and eduction services provided by Wealth By Creation Pty Ltd (acn 112 230 958) and David Schirmer involve the supply of factual information about securities and securities markets only. It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques or indicators presented will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The training and education services do not involve any recommendations in relation to your personal financial circumstances or investment needs and does not provide any investment advice. Examples presented are for educational purposes only. Any stock, option, warrant, CFD, currency or future contract mentioned are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold but merely a study of past performance.
Before making any investment decisions you should obtain advice from a licensed securities advisor and consider with or without the assistance of a securities adviser, whether the advice is appropriate in light of the particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances of the prospective investor. Trading Edge®, Wealth By Creation Pty Ltd and its representatives and officers will not accept liability for any loss, damage or expense incurred or suffered by you if you rely on any information provided in making investment decisions. By attending any Wealth By Creation event or reading or viewing any Wealth By Creation material you are implicitly agreeing to the conditions set out above.
2005 will be a very different year from 2004, for both traders and investors.
WD Gann said that a year ending in 5 in the decade was typically very bullish. I believe that 2005 will be no different (check out the 103 year chart at http://www.asx.com.au/about/pdf/AllOrds.pdf). My bias is that the Australian market is now well into Wave 5 on the Elliott Wave (long term yearly), considering Wave 1 commenced in 1975 and the shorter term (monthly) started in 1987, this is a probably Wave 5 of a Wave 5.
The All Ordinaries index is in the orb period of the 18-year cycle low (Nov 2002-Oct 2008). History shows us that the 18-year cycle high has always been preceded by a euphoric rise that lasted at least 18 months and at least double in price from the low (18-year cycle troughs: 1915, 1953, 1975 - 1932 & 1987 were the lows of the longer term 54-year cycles). The decline into the 18-year cycle low has been at least 38% over a minimum of 18 months (a multi-year decline)! And that is all ahead of us now!!!
This means that the final high of this current rise will be at least 5,332 points (200% of the March 13, 2003 low) and will happen before May 2006 (at least 18 months before Oct 2008 - the latest that the18-year cycle could end). Then followed by the 18-year cycle low – a fall of at least 1,593 points … a bit of a decline. A 1,600 plus decline over at least 18 months would give ample opportunity to make a lot of money of the short side of the market in many stocks and indices.
My bias is that most or all of the rise into the 18-year cycle crest will happen in 2005, but not before a small correction. That small correction is due right now. In fact, I have been expecting it for the last couple of months. A final high at 4,106 this week would be perfect, however it may not reach there. This Monday January 10, 2005 is a ‘high energy’ day and will lend itself to a strong rise; Tuesday, January 11 is a potential turning date for the All Ords. However Friday, January 14 has ‘cycle top’ written all over it. If the market is rising into January 14, expect it to turn and commence its decline, if the market is falling into that date expect another sharp rally up before the peak.
In any case, be prepared for confirmation of a peak in the market over the next fortnight, which should then lead the index into a sharp fall of at least 360 points. Whatever you do, trade your knowledge in the market … don’t trade my comments or someone else’s opinion!
® Trading Edge is a registered trademark used under licence by Wealth By Creation Pty Ltd.
Disclaimer
The training and eduction services provided by Wealth By Creation Pty Ltd (acn 112 230 958) and David Schirmer involve the supply of factual information about securities and securities markets only. It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques or indicators presented will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The training and education services do not involve any recommendations in relation to your personal financial circumstances or investment needs and does not provide any investment advice. Examples presented are for educational purposes only. Any stock, option, warrant, CFD, currency or future contract mentioned are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold but merely a study of past performance.
Before making any investment decisions you should obtain advice from a licensed securities advisor and consider with or without the assistance of a securities adviser, whether the advice is appropriate in light of the particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances of the prospective investor. Trading Edge®, Wealth By Creation Pty Ltd and its representatives and officers will not accept liability for any loss, damage or expense incurred or suffered by you if you rely on any information provided in making investment decisions. By attending any Wealth By Creation event or reading or viewing any Wealth By Creation material you are implicitly agreeing to the conditions set out above.
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