Welcome to my Stock Market Indices Report. As we now have subscribers from all parts of the world I thought I would add other markets rather than just the Australian stock market. This report is in no way indicative of what individual stocks will do but rather a general ‘crystal ball’ of overall market movements. Individual stocks often do not move in the same direction or the same magnitude as an index. To know what stocks to buy or what to sell you must do your own study and research. Please read the disclaimer below.
Last week was another rocky week for stock markets around the world. Last week I wrote that the Australian Stock Index would “open low Monday morning and start trading up Tuesday continuing for 1-3 weeks forming a new Primary Cycle high before continuing its decline into the longer term lows”… and that Friday, August 10 was a reversal day and 6201 was a major resistance.
This should silence those who put up anonymous posts on the internet claiming I don’t know what I’m talking about – I always find it amazing that those ‘people-destroyers’ never have the intestinal fortitude (guts) to post their analysis. For three weeks in a row my forecasts have been pretty well spot on! The Aussie market bottomed out Monday, August 6, turned up Tuesday, ran up all week, stopped 13 points short of the major resistance of 6201, then turned down on Friday, August 10 … my nominated reversal date! Oh, and for the cynics and naysayers, I also said three weeks ago that this first fall would be 316-556 points … it fell 547!!!
Here is an overview of what has happened in the world markets:
CAC High 6168, dropped 733 points (11.9%). Major support is at 5296 and 5366.
DAX High 8152, dropped 858 points (10.5%). Has a double top March 2000 and July 2007. Major support at 6661, 6437 and 5170.
DOW High 14022, dropped 964 points (6.9%). Major support at 12981, 11940, 11750 and 10445.
FTSE High 6724, dropped 686 points (10.2%). Major support at 5885, 5576 and 5016.
NASDAQ High 1761, dropped 190 points (10.8%). Major support at 1511, 1394 and 1273.
Nikkei High 18300, dropped 1647 points (9.0%). Major support at 16006, and 14046.
S&P High 1556, dropped 102 points (6.6%). Double top March 2000 and July 2007. Major support at 1381 and 1162.
XAO High 6469, dropped 547 points (8.5%).
I will gradually build up the report to cover each major market around the world. This week I will cover The Australian All Ordinaries Stock Index (XAO) in more detail.
My bias is now that most markets are moving into their longer term cycle declines and lows. As mentioned earlier, the All Ordinaries Index is`in the time period for a further decline into the 46-month cycle low, and even further into the 18-year cycle low. The minimum decline to the 18-year cycle low will be 1995 points from the all time high (30.8% drop!) More about that later on.
This week if it trades below 5914 expect the market to continue its decline into longer term cycle lows.
Minor support levels for the decline are 5822 and 5777 with major support for further decline at 5914, 5641, 5627, 5518, 5043, 4568, 4092. and ... Minor reversal dates are August 14 & August 22.
Next report out on Monday, August 20.
Yours in abundance,
David Schirmer
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Terminology
CAC The CAC 40 index is the main benchmark for Euronext Paris (France).
DAX DAX 30 is a Blue Chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.
DOW The Dow Jones Industrial Average (The Dow) is the main stock market index for the New York Stock Exchange (USA).
FTSE The FTSE 100 Index (or just the FTSE, pronounced footsie) is a share index of the 100 most highly capitalised companies listed on the London Stock Exchange. FTSE is an abbreviation of 'Financial Times Stock Exchange'.
NASDAQ The NASDAQ-100 is a stock market index of 100 of the largest domestic and international non-financial companies listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange (USA).
Nikkei Nikkei 225 is a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (Japan).
S&P The S&P 500 is an index containing the stocks of 500 Large-Cap corporations, most of which are American, from both the NYSE and NASDAQ Stock Exchanges (USA).
XAO The All Ordinaries (colloquially, the "All Ords"; also known as the All Ordinaries Index, AOI) is the main index of shares for the Australian Stock Exchange.
Disclaimer
The training and education services provided by Wealth By Choice Pty Ltd (ACN 112 230 958) involve the supply of factual information about securities and commodity markets only. It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques or indicators presented will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The training and education services do not involve any recommendations in relation to your personal financial circumstances or investment needs and does not provide any investment advice. Examples presented are for educational purposes only. Any stock, option, warrant, CFD or futures contract mentioned are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold but merely a study of past performance.
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