Welcome to my first report on the Australian All Ordinaries Index for 2004. I used to write a report nearly six years ago for ODDS, a web based online data provider, also for the Money Section of the Melbourne Herald Sun daily newspaper. Because of the accuracy of the report I have had many requests since to publish a regular report on the All Ords. The purpose of this report is to provide a view of my bias on the Australian market at least a week in advance and at the same time educate you with analysis methodologies. So here goes …. happy reading!
The All Ords index is entering week 11 of its 19-week Primary cycle; the cycle started at 3346.8 on May 18, 2004, rose to make a Half Primary cycle peak at 3563.1 on July 12, 2004 and fell to 3488.9 on July 26, 2004 (last Monday) to make the Half Primary cycle trough (yet to be confirmed). The first thrust up of this two thrust bull cycle was 216.3 points! [Note: For those who have studied Gann, this cycle is humming along to the natural number of 144 (square of 12) … 216 point rise (150% of 144) and 74 point decline (50% of 144 is 72). Could be a coincidence!?!]
The All Ords had a good rise last week (July 26–30) making up most of the decline from the previous two weeks. This rise was expected as the index is coming off the Half Primary cycle low of 3488.9 on July 26. So where to this week?
I have an overall (next 12-18 months) strong bullish bias for the Australian All Ordinaries Index for a number of reasons of which I will discuss over the coming weeks and months. Be aware that the 20.5-month cycle low is due between August 8, 2004 and February 27, 2005. That said my short term bias is that the market is bullish. As the index is in week 11 of its 19-week cycle, and the first thrust was strong right translation, I expect the All Ords to rise for the next 3-4 weeks at least. The only thing that would change this is if the XAO fails to take out the 3563.1 high made on July 12, 2004 within the next three weeks which would put the market in a dive for the 20.5-month cycle low somewhere between 3008.8 and 3220.5.
My bias is that the All Ords will continue to rise this week with average to strong moves Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday August 5 is a strong turning date for the market so if the market is moving strongly up then a reversal Thursday will see a counter trend down until Monday, August 9. [Note: If the market turned down on Monday, August 2 (which in my view is unlikely) be prepared for the fall to continue through until Thursday and hence this cycle to be center translation, turn bear and head for the 20.5-month cycle low.]
Watch minor price resistance (intraday) at 3561, medium resistance at 3592 - 3597, minor resistance again at 3633, 3651 and 3658, and strong price resistance at 3705, and extreme resistance at 3724.3.
Happy Trading … and remember …
... “Only go long in the first 1/6th of the Primary, Half Primary and Major (6-week) cycles!”
The All Ords index is entering week 11 of its 19-week Primary cycle; the cycle started at 3346.8 on May 18, 2004, rose to make a Half Primary cycle peak at 3563.1 on July 12, 2004 and fell to 3488.9 on July 26, 2004 (last Monday) to make the Half Primary cycle trough (yet to be confirmed). The first thrust up of this two thrust bull cycle was 216.3 points! [Note: For those who have studied Gann, this cycle is humming along to the natural number of 144 (square of 12) … 216 point rise (150% of 144) and 74 point decline (50% of 144 is 72). Could be a coincidence!?!]
The All Ords had a good rise last week (July 26–30) making up most of the decline from the previous two weeks. This rise was expected as the index is coming off the Half Primary cycle low of 3488.9 on July 26. So where to this week?
I have an overall (next 12-18 months) strong bullish bias for the Australian All Ordinaries Index for a number of reasons of which I will discuss over the coming weeks and months. Be aware that the 20.5-month cycle low is due between August 8, 2004 and February 27, 2005. That said my short term bias is that the market is bullish. As the index is in week 11 of its 19-week cycle, and the first thrust was strong right translation, I expect the All Ords to rise for the next 3-4 weeks at least. The only thing that would change this is if the XAO fails to take out the 3563.1 high made on July 12, 2004 within the next three weeks which would put the market in a dive for the 20.5-month cycle low somewhere between 3008.8 and 3220.5.
My bias is that the All Ords will continue to rise this week with average to strong moves Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday August 5 is a strong turning date for the market so if the market is moving strongly up then a reversal Thursday will see a counter trend down until Monday, August 9. [Note: If the market turned down on Monday, August 2 (which in my view is unlikely) be prepared for the fall to continue through until Thursday and hence this cycle to be center translation, turn bear and head for the 20.5-month cycle low.]
Watch minor price resistance (intraday) at 3561, medium resistance at 3592 - 3597, minor resistance again at 3633, 3651 and 3658, and strong price resistance at 3705, and extreme resistance at 3724.3.
Happy Trading … and remember …
... “Only go long in the first 1/6th of the Primary, Half Primary and Major (6-week) cycles!”
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