Last week I suggested that the All Ords would “decline from this level on the confirmation of a 1-3 day counter trend. Minor reversal dates coming up are Thursday 21 October …”
It opened up low on Thursday, went up all day, continued to rise Friday giving an up bar and a one day counter trend. Today the index fell sharply confirming a one day counter trend and a possible short position for Advanced Trading Techniques graduates.
Minor reversal dates coming up are 27/28 October 2004. As stated last week, expect major support in this decline at 3602, 3467, 3334, 3201 and 3066. Minor and support at 3669, 3641 and 3612.
Happy Trading!
Tuesday, October 26, 2004
Sunday, October 17, 2004
Australian All Ordinaries Index (XAO) for week beginning October 18, 2004
WOW … does time fly fast. I was intending to get this report out weekly and all of a sudden 4 weeks have gone past! Now I have a whole bunch of people on my back to get it out EVERY week … so I’d better!!!
Since my last report the All Ordinaries index continued to rise making new all time highs. On October 13 and 14, it stopped at the resistance level of 3734; 125% price extension of the previous Primary Cycle is at 3728. October 14 is also a major turning date in the market that coincides with a solar eclipse (check this historically … it might surprise you!). 3725 is also 100% of the previous 46-Month cycle, hence strong resistance at this level.
The market is now entering week 22 of its 19-week “Primary Cycle”. This often indicates a sharp decline to end the cycle. It is also in the orb period for the “20.5-Month Cycle”. The longer cycle is always the dominant one and can contract or expand the shorter cycle - meaning that this primary cycle could be expanded beyond the 16-22 week orb.
My bias from the market is a decline from this level on the confirmation of a 1-3 day counter trend. Minor reversal dates coming up are Thursday 21 October and Wednesday 27 October. If 3734 is the top of this 20.5-Month cycle, expect support at 3602, 3467, 3334, 3201 and 3066. The decline has 70% probability of falling to between 3326 and 3075. If further advances are made (new highs) these support level will be recalculated.
Since my last report the All Ordinaries index continued to rise making new all time highs. On October 13 and 14, it stopped at the resistance level of 3734; 125% price extension of the previous Primary Cycle is at 3728. October 14 is also a major turning date in the market that coincides with a solar eclipse (check this historically … it might surprise you!). 3725 is also 100% of the previous 46-Month cycle, hence strong resistance at this level.
The market is now entering week 22 of its 19-week “Primary Cycle”. This often indicates a sharp decline to end the cycle. It is also in the orb period for the “20.5-Month Cycle”. The longer cycle is always the dominant one and can contract or expand the shorter cycle - meaning that this primary cycle could be expanded beyond the 16-22 week orb.
My bias from the market is a decline from this level on the confirmation of a 1-3 day counter trend. Minor reversal dates coming up are Thursday 21 October and Wednesday 27 October. If 3734 is the top of this 20.5-Month cycle, expect support at 3602, 3467, 3334, 3201 and 3066. The decline has 70% probability of falling to between 3326 and 3075. If further advances are made (new highs) these support level will be recalculated.
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